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Here are some of the biggest misconceptions about today’s housing market and the facts.
Back then, new construction single-family homes flooded the market, lending standards were incredibly loose, and many homeowners were cashing out their equity left and right.
Today’s market is nearly the exact opposite.
Since the housing crash of 2008:
Plus, housing market experts are forecasting continued price appreciation this year, as demand continues to outweigh home supply.
Stories about the volume of foreclosures are all over the news today. But the most important thing to remember is context is everything.
Yes, many homeowners were able to pause their mortgage payments during the forbearance program, and there was legitimate concern from many experts that it would result in a wave of foreclosures coming to the market.
However, the number of foreclosures we’re seeing today is nothing like the last time.
Here are some of the reasons why that’s happening:
Today’s data shows that most homeowners are exiting their forbearance plan either fully caught up on payments or with a plan from the bank that restructured their loan in a way that allowed them to start making payments again.
For all of these reasons, experts don’t anticipate a wave of foreclosures that would negatively affect housing prices.
Skyrocketing price appreciation has many sellers and buyers sitting on the fence. However, experts don’t project home prices to go down anytime soon. Instead, data from earlier in the year has already been adjusted to be higher than previously anticipated.
So, to answer this question… First American explains it like this:
“While house price growth is expected to moderate from the rapid pace of 2021, strong home buyer demand against a backdrop of historically tight inventory of homes for sale will likely keep appreciation positive in the coming year.”
For both buyers and sellers, this means one thing: playing the waiting game is a risky business.
When it comes to sellers, the higher price appreciation over the last two years has been great for your home’s value. But if you will also be buying a home after selling, you shouldn’t wait for prices to fall.
In both cases, waiting will only cost more in the long run because climbing mortgage rates and rising home prices will have an impact on your next home purchase.
Homeownership has become a major element in achieving the American Dream. A recent report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) finds that over 86% of buyers agree homeownership is still the American Dream.
Prior to the 1950s, less than half of the country owned their own home. However, after World War II, many returning veterans used the benefits afforded by the GI Bill to purchase a home. Since then, the percentage of homeowners throughout the country has increased to the current rate of 65.5%. That strong desire for homeownership has kept home values appreciating ever since. The graph below tracks home price appreciation since the end of World War II:
The graph shows the only time home values dropped significantly was during the housing boom and bust of 2006-2008. If you look at how prices spiked prior to 2006, it looks a bit like the current spike in prices over the past two years. That may lead some people to be concerned we’re about to see a similar fall in home values as we did when the bubble burst. To help alleviate those worries, let’s look at what happened last time and what’s happening today.
Back in 2006, foreclosures flooded the market. That drove down home values dramatically. The two main reasons for the flood of foreclosures were:
This cycle continued for years.
Here are two reasons today’s market is nothing like the one we experienced 15 years ago.
Running up to 2006, banks were creating artificial demand by lowering lending standards and making it easy for just about anyone to qualify for a home loan or refinance their current home. Today, purchasers and those refinancing a home face much higher standards from mortgage companies.
Data from the Urban Institute shows the amount of risk banks were willing to take on then as compared to now.
There’s always risk when a bank loans money. However, leading up to the housing crash 15 years ago, lending institutions took on much greater risks in both the person and the mortgage product offered. That led to mass defaults, foreclosures, and falling prices.
Today, the demand for homeownership is real. It’s generated by a re-evaluation of the importance of home due to a worldwide pandemic. Additionally, lending standards are much stricter in the current lending environment. Purchasers can afford the mortgage they’re taking on, so there’s little concern about possible defaults.
And if you’re worried about the number of people still in forbearance, you should know there’s no risk of that causing an upheaval in the housing market today. There won’t be a flood of foreclosures.
As mentioned above, when prices were rapidly escalating in the early 2000s, many thought it would never end. They started to borrow against the equity in their homes to finance new cars, boats, and vacations. When prices started to fall, many of these homeowners were underwater, leading some to abandon their homes. This increased the number of foreclosures.
Homeowners didn’t forget the lessons of the crash as prices skyrocketed over the last few years. Black Knight reports that tappable equity (the amount of equity available for homeowners to access before hitting a maximum 80% loan-to-value ratio, or LTV) has more than doubled compared to 2006 ($4.6 trillion to $9.9 trillion).
The latest Homeowner Equity Insights report from CoreLogic reveals that the average homeowner gained $55,300 in home equity over the past year alone. Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, reports:
“Homeowners in Q4 2021 had an average of $307,000 in equity – a historic high.”
ATTOM Data Services also reveals that 41.9% of all mortgaged homes have at least 50% equity. These homeowners will not face an underwater situation even if prices dip slightly. Today, homeowners are much more cautious.
The major reason for the housing crash 15 years ago was a tsunami of foreclosures. With much stricter mortgage standards and a historic level of homeowner equity, the fear of massive foreclosures impacting today’s market is not realistic.
A recession does not equal a housing crisis. That’s the one thing that every homeowner today needs to know. Everywhere you look, experts are warning we could be heading toward a recession, and if true, an economic slowdown doesn’t mean homes will lose value.
The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) defines a recession this way:
A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, normally visible in production, employment, and other indicators. A recession begins when the economy reaches a peak of economic activity and ends when the economy reaches its trough. Between trough and peak, the economy is in an expansion.
To help show that home prices don’t fall every time there’s a recession, take a look at the historical data. There have been six recessions in this country over the past four decades. As the graph below shows, looking at the recessions going all the way back to the 1980s, home prices appreciated four times and depreciated only two times. So, historically, there’s proof that when the economy slows down, it doesn’t mean home values will fall or depreciate.
The first occasion on the graph when home values depreciated was in the early 1990s when home prices dropped by less than 2%. It happened again during the housing crisis in 2008 when home values declined by almost 20%. Most people vividly remember the housing crisis in 2008 and think if we were to fall into a recession that we’d repeat what happened then. But this housing market isn’t a bubble that’s about to burst. The fundamentals are very different today than they were in 2008. So, we shouldn’t assume we’re heading down the same path.
We’re not in a recession in this country, but if one is coming, it doesn’t mean homes will lose value. History proves a recession doesn’t equal a housing crisis.
An open letter to sellers about today’s housing market
This is a great takeaway on the current state of our market that I am sharing that was written by Ryan Lundquist.
Dear Sellers,
How are things? I hope all is well. It’s been such a crazy market, but things are starting to change. So, let’s chat. This is coming from a good place, and it’s based on observations and what I’m hearing from real estate professionals.
THINGS TO KEEP IN MIND ABOUT TODAY’S MARKET:
1) You’ve lost power: The market is still competitive, but it’s not what it was in February. The truth is buyers have gained more power lately. Most agents I talk to say they are easily getting about half as many offers compared to a few months ago. So, instead of getting eight offers, you might only get a few. And if you’re priced too high, you’ll probably get zero offers.
2) Buyers are growing more sensitive: Mortgage rates skyrocketing means affordability has taken a beating. Seriously, buyers are easily paying $500 or more each month to get a mortgage this year compared to last year at the same time. This means buyers are becoming more sensitive to price, condition, and location. In other words, if they are paying top dollar, they are growing pickier about what they buy.
3) Don’t aim for unicorns: Be careful of the idea of a unicorn buyer who is going to swoop in, ignore the comps, and pay top dollar in cash for your home. If that happens, great. Keep in mind only about 15% of sales this year have been all cash in the region. This means 85% of buyers are getting a loan.
4) But Zillow says: Don’t get hung up on what Zillow says your house is worth. The only thing that matters is what real buyers are willing to pay. Nobody gets stuck on a low Zestimate, so why get hung up on a high one?
5) Avoid strongarm moves: “Remove the appraisal contingency, pay me an extra $25,000, and give me your firstborn child.” These things still happen in some price ranges (okay, not the child thing), but the market is starting to see just a little bit more sanity lately. I’ve heard quite a few stories of buyers bailing after the seller countered with a stongarm move that might’ve worked a few months back. In short, buyers are picky about getting into contract AND staying in contract.
6) Sales are old and crusty: Sales tell us what the market used to be like probably 30 to 60 days ago when the properties got into contract. In other words, sales are like historic artifacts that tell us what the market used to be like. In contrast, we see the current temperature of the market with what is happening with listings and pendings. This means it’s key to know the sales, AND gauge any temperature change since.
7) Be ready to negotiate if needed: I am hearing more stories of buyers asking for credits for repairs, concessions, and price reductions. Sometimes sellers feel they’re losing when this happens, but in some situations it’s simply the ticket to selling for top dollar. In short, listen to what buyers are asking for, and help the deal feel good for them too. This isn’t just about you. Don’t be afraid of FHA and VA buyers either.
8) It’s not time to push the price: Look, sellers aren’t entitled to always netting more than recent sales. My advice? Price reasonably and see what the market gives you. There are some situations where you might need to price lower than recent sales too to generate interest. Forget about record-breaking sales or your overpriced neighbor. What is getting into contract right now? That’s the ONLY thing that matters.
9) Tighten up the details: Buyers have become more sensitive about condition, so it can help to address minor cosmetic repairs before you hit the market (if you can). I’ve talked to a number of buyers who feel discouraged about the condition of homes right now for the price, so a good way to stand out is to be sure your property is tight. Buyers notice details, and solving minor issues only helps give them fewer reasons to say NO.
10) Watch for symptoms of softening: Talk to your agent about the temperature and be in tune with signs of softening. As you see stuff like this, let it influence your strategy for pricing and negotiating.
11) Don’t expect to go $100,000 over: A seller got two offers and said, “Let’s hold out for something higher.” I’m not saying to be hasty about accepting offers, but don’t embrace unrealistic expectations. Headlines from the past talked about bidding wars, but right now headlines are starting to say stuff like, “The temperature has changed,” or “It’s still competitive, but it’s not what it was.” On that note, don’t be afraid to reduce the price if needed. You are not giving up value if value wasn’t ever there in the first place.
12) Other: What other advice would you give? Please comment below.
I hope this was helpful.
Sincerely,
Ryan Lundquist
Certified Appraiser / Housing Market Analyst
Sacramento Appraisal Blog
If you’re planning to buy a home, it’s critical to understand the relationship between mortgage rates and your purchasing power. Purchasing power is the amount of home you can afford to buy that’s within your financial reach. Mortgage rates directly impact the monthly payment you’ll have on the home you purchase. So, when rates rise, so does the monthly payment you’re able to lock in on your home loan. In a rising-rate environment like we’re in today, that could limit your future purchasing power.
Today, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is above 5%, and in the near term, experts say that’ll likely go up in the months ahead. You have the opportunity to get ahead of that increase if you buy now before that impacts your purchasing power.
The chart below can help you understand the general relationship between mortgage rates and a typical monthly mortgage payment within a range of loan amounts. Let’s say your budget allows for a monthly mortgage payment in the $2,100-$2,200 range. The green in the chart indicates a payment within that range, while the red is a payment that exceeds it (see chart below):
As the chart shows, you’re more likely to exceed your target payment range as mortgage rates increase unless you pursue a lower home loan amount. If you’re ready to buy a home, use this as your motivation to purchase now so you can get ahead of rising rates before you have to make the decision to decrease what you borrow in order to stay comfortably within your budget.
It’s critical to keep your budget top of mind as you’re searching for a home. Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at realtor.com, puts it best, advising that buyers should:
“Get preapproved with where rates are today, but also consider what would happen if rates were to go up, say another quarter of a point, . . . Know what that would do to your monthly costs and how comfortable you are with that, so that if rates do move higher, you already know how you need to adjust in response.”
No matter what, the best strategy is to work with your real estate advisor and a trusted lender to create a plan that takes rising mortgage rates into consideration. Together, you can look at your budget based on where rates are today and craft a strategy so you’re ready to adjust as rates change.
Even small increases in mortgage rates can impact your purchasing power. If you’re in the process of buying a home, it’s more important than ever to have a strong plan. Partner with me and let me share my list of trusted local lenders to strategize so you can achieve your dream of homeownership this season.
Many people are wondering: will home prices fall this year? Whether you’re a potential homebuyer, seller, or both, the answer to this question matters for you. Let’s break down what’s happening with home prices, where experts say they’re headed, and how this impacts your homeownership goals.
Home prices have seen 121 consecutive months of year-over-year increases. CoreLogic says:
“Price appreciation averaged 15% for the full year of 2021, up from the 2020 full year average of 6%.”
So why are prices climbing so much? It’s because there are more buyers than there are homes for sale. This imbalance is expected to maintain that upward pressure on home prices because homes for sale are a hot commodity in today’s low-inventory housing market.
Experts say the housing market isn’t set up for a price decline due to that ongoing imbalance between supply and demand. In the latest home price forecasts for 2022, they’re calling for ongoing appreciation throughout the year (see graph below):
While the experts are forecasting more moderate price appreciation, the 2022 projections show price gains will remain strong throughout this year. First American explains it like this:
“While house price growth is expected to moderate from the rapid pace of 2021, strong home buyer demand against a backdrop of historically tight inventory of homes for sale will likely keep appreciation positive in the coming year.”
The biggest takeaway is that none of the experts are projecting depreciation. If you’re a homeowner thinking about selling, the higher price appreciation over the last two years has been great for your home’s value, but it’s also something you should factor in when planning your next steps. If you’ll also be buying a home after selling your current house, you shouldn’t wait for prices to fall. Waiting will only cost you more in the long run because climbing mortgage rates and rising home prices will have an impact on your next home purchase. Freddie Mac says:
“If you’re thinking about waiting until next year and that maybe rates are higher, but you’ll get a deal on prices – well that’s risky. It may be more advantageous to purchase this year relative to waiting until 2023 at this time.”
If you’re thinking of selling to move up, you shouldn’t wait for prices to fall. Experts say prices will continue to appreciate this year. That means, if you’re ready, buying your next home before prices climb further may make the most financial sense. Partner with me as your real estate professional to begin the process of selling your current home and looking for your next one before prices rise higher.
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© 2022 Coldwell Banker Residential LLC
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Start with the lawn
Especially during the aftermath of hurricanes, we learn just how many Americans lack hazard insurance. Those who did have it faced the challenge of trying to figure out how to tally up their losses. It’s not easy to recall everything one owns, especially when confronting devastation. Then, there are the other losses a homeowner might face, such as those from theft and fire.
If you’re like many gardeners, your shovels, shears, and other tools have been sitting in the shed since last season and likely need a little TLC. If a deep clean is in order, a soapy rinse and soak paired with a scrub brush should do the trick. Wooden handles? Give them a light sanding to help remove splinters.