Market Info November 5, 2023

What’s Up with Real Estate? National news and local views for the week ending Friday, November 3, 2023

Very happy to deliver some good news to would-be buyers: mortgage rates just had a nice move downward! If you’ve put off buying (affordability) or selling (feeling locked-in by low mortgage rates), let’s have a discussion to make sure you’re ready to move when the time is right.

What’s Up with Real Estate?

National news and local views for the week ending Friday, November 3, 2023

National Real Estate News

Home prices keep rising

The Case-Shiller indexes are some of the best measures of home price appreciation out there. In August, the national index rose 0.9% month-over-month (that’s a lot in one month!), and is now up 4% year-to-date. 10 of the 20 big city indexes set new records in August, and ALL of the city indexes are up year-to-date. Many of the hardest-hit markets in 2022 (Seattle, Las Vegas) are rebounding quickly.

Home prices keep rising
Fed keeps rates steady

Despite the very strong 3rd quarter GDP number and the resilient job market, the Fed chose to keep interest rates on hold for the second-straight meeting. This, in and of itself, is ‘dovish’ (suggests that rate hikes are already or nearly finished.) But of course, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell refused to officially end the tightening cycle, instead warning that more rate hikes could still be possible.

Fed keeps rates steady
Big drop in mortgage rates

Was it the Fed’s double skip? The weaker than expected job growth from ADP? Whatever the reason, let’s just celebrate that treasury yields and mortgage rates had a big move lower recently. Are we truly excited about an average 30-year mortgage rate of 7.5%? Perhaps not. But it’s a lot better than the +8% we had over the last few weeks. And it feels like the market has turned an important corner.

Big drop in mortgage rates

Local Market Trends

As of Friday, November 3, 2023
Area Median Price Active Listings New Listings – 5 days Median Days on Market
Austin, TX
$650,000

Trend Arrow

0.1%
3808

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0.2%
252
61

Trend Arrow

0.1%
78628
$564,990

Trend Arrow

0%
646

Trend Arrow

1%
28
94

Trend Arrow

0.4%
Pflugerville, TX
$439,999

Trend Arrow

0%
330

Trend Arrow

0.2%
24
55

Trend Arrow

0.1%
Round Rock, TX
$452,470

Trend Arrow

0%
524

Trend Arrow

0.2%
31
65

Trend Arrow

0.1%
Local Market Trends (Red downwards arrow/Green upwards arrow) from Oct. to Nov. 2023.
Market Info September 14, 2023

Has the residential real estate market changed? For the better or worse?

By Mark Sprague, State Director of Information Capital

A question Realtors, economists, real estate analysts, and more have been getting for the past 18+ months: Has the residential real estate market changed? For the better or worse?

Contrary to owners/investors’ fears, the so-called “strong housing bubble” of the last 3+/- years has not burst (“bubble” in quotes because we never had a bubble by any definition). Instead, a gentle decline in both supply and demand has struck a balance, resulting in a boost to the housing median price/value. Throughout the first half of 2023, Texas’ median home prices consistently show a 0.3-0.4 percent monthly increase.

Due to current owners’ reluctance to sell their existing property (locked into a home financed at a lower interest rate, i.e., “Why would I sell my current home for a smaller house and higher payments?”), the demand for new construction has significantly increased. This shift in preference has led to a swift climb in the market share of new construction, which surpassed 20% in June (historically, builders control 15% to 25% of housing markets). Due to a lack of resale inventory plus strong demand, new construction should move up to a 30+% market share over the next two years.

Let’s focus on the shift in the Texas metro residential real estate market that began about 18 months ago, as the Federal Reserve raised rates to fight inflation in March-April of 2022, leading to slower sales and market environment over the past year. (While rates are higher, they remain below pre-2009 levels.)

I need to remind you that this market cycle has been very different from others we’ve experienced over more than thirty years. One of the clearest indicators of this difference is the ratio of sales (houses, condos, and townhouses) versus the number of listings each month since 1990. (For reference, in 1990, Texas was coming out of the S&L/oil collapse. 1,617 commercial and savings banks failed between 1980 and 1994. There were tons of foreclosures in Texas and the oil patch, with a 90% loss of real estate value, both residential and commercial.)

Over the last 30+ years, a monthly average of about 35% of active listings were sold each month. Before 2013, the average was much lower at 22%. 2012 was the year we emerged from the “Great Recession,” and 2013 was the first year of the current market cycle. With rare exceptions, absorption of active listings has been above 34% since 2013 and was driven to a much higher average of 70% by the frantic period in 2020, 2021, and early 2022. In March of 2021, our market actually sold three times as many homes as were listed! Through 2022, the market easily absorbed 80+% of each month’s listings.

This supply-and-demand imbalance has obviously impacted home prices (as well as other real estate channels); as stated above, value increases have slowed in 2023 but are still increasing monthly. Why? More inventory is needed.

Yes, inventory supply has crept up to more than three months. That is still not a balanced market if you go by the standard wisdom that six months of inventory is parity. We could easily burn through that inventory as more and more potential sellers decide not to sell due to the ‘locked-in effect’ of having much lower mortgage rates than current rates available now. Yes, ‘days on the market/DOM’ has increased, but again, that is more of a move toward a ‘normalized’ market.

Again, we are a long way from a balanced six months of inventory (the point where inventory changes a ‘sellers’ market’ into a ‘buyers market’). In addition, a buyers’ market brings discounting off the list price. This is not apparent presently, with most homes selling above 95% to 98% of the list price. (Pricing appropriately – closer to the median value – historically makes for quicker sales and fewer negotiations on value, etc.)

Rates have increased at the fastest pace in US history over the past year, and sales prices continue to be driven above the long-term trend lines.

So, back to the question, are values going up or down? Every month, each of our Texas metros has continued to see appreciation, with little chance of de-escalation due to a lack of inventory. So, those waiting for values to drop or be discounted will not see those goals met. If you want/need to buy, waiting will cost you both in value and monthly payments.

Consider these trends when thinking about whether or not you should wait to buy.

  • Due to job creation, inventory remains low—a longer trend expected to last 4 to 5 years.
  • Rents are not slowing. Concessions on rents are small, with little to no chance of escalation. Any slowing is in the rental market is temporary. Stricter lending standards for commercial loans will slow down new construction of apartments, leading to more competition for existing properties and higher rents.
  • The cost of Labor and materials will continue to rise due to lack of availability.
  • Lending rates will remain at this level or higher due to inflation. “Marry the house, rent the rate” is now the buzz phrase on the street.
  • Based on the points above, values/prices will remain strong for a while.
  • The lower-than-normal lending rates (less than 6%) of the last 15 years are likely a thing of the past. i.e., there is no real opportunity of getting a much lower rate in the near future….

Some may disagree with any or all of the above, but I have spent the last 40+ years analyzing market trends in housing, financing, consumer behavior, and more. I am not a Realtor or lender, but I track the data and speak to where the market is headed. Time will tell!

Buying September 8, 2023

Should You Buy or Rent a Home?

In today’s competitive real estate market, you may wonder if it’s better to rent a place or buy a home. Purchasing a residence can provide more privacy and future investment potential, while renting allows for more flexibility and less maintenance. Both options have a myriad of pros and cons, but it ultimately will depend on […]

In today’s competitive real estate market, you may wonder if it’s better to rent a place or buy a home. Purchasing a residence can provide more privacy and future investment potential, while renting allows for more flexibility and less maintenance. Both options have a myriad of pros and cons, but it ultimately will depend on your financial situation, lifestyle needs and long-term goals. Here are a few factors to consider.

Costs and Maintenance

When you rent a home, you typically pay a flat monthly rental fee plus utilities and insurance, and any repairs or maintenance are the landlord’s responsibility. However, when it comes time to renew your lease, you may find that your monthly rent goes up. When purchasing a home, your monthly mortgage payment remains constant and there’s always the option of refinancing if interest rates drop. Of course, you will also be responsible for your own maintenance and repairs.

Building Wealth

When you own your own home, you build appreciation and equity as the value of your property increases over time. In recent years as property values have appreciated across the country, owning a home has proven to be a smart investment. When you rent, your monthly housing costs go straight to the landlord.

Customization

For renters, landlords often have specific rules about the surrounding property and limit things like growing gardens, decorations, painting interiors and more. But when you own, it’s yours to do what you like. While your HOA may have some restrictions on exteriors, you are generally free to customize your property to suit your personal style. You can also add amenities and make upgrades like new appliances, light fixtures, flooring and other features that can increase its value and your future financial prosperity.

Flexibility

Rental agreements often span a year or go from month to month, which allows you to make quicker adjustments for lifestyle changes or new job opportunities. However, when it’s time to renew your lease, there is no guarantee that the property will continue to be available. When you own a home, adapting your living situation is a process and involves finding a buyer, as well as the transfer of taxes, title insurance and other legal documents. However, it will give you the stability needed to build long-term success.

In many markets, it’s cheaper in the long run to own a home than to rent, as rent prices have risen steeply across the country. Contact me to help you determine if purchasing a home is the right option.

 

JENNIFER MCGUIRE Coldwell Blue Matter Article

Home Improvement August 29, 2023

Interesting how color can influence the human brain in a number of ways.

Color can influence the human brain in a number of ways

Stagers typically recommend painting homes in neutral colors like beige or gray to appeal to more buyers. But that advice isn’t always true.

Science has proven that up to 90% of homebuying decisions are influenced by color, which can have a greater impact on people’s moods and reactions than previously thought. The human brain processes and organizes color signals in a split second. Color is a universal language, and you can guide clients on how to use color science in their home sale.

For example, you may have heard that exterior paint colors should be limited to two or three choices or that warm neutral colors are best if you want interiors to look more spacious. This is generally true. Highly-specific and stylized exteriors and interiors can be off-putting, particularly if they don’t match your prospective buyers’ tastes.

But touches of the right colors inside and outside a home can help compel buyers to make a quicker purchase decision. (Spoiler alert: White is not always the answer for giving the impression of a larger space.)

The impact of color on our brains is scientifically proven. Choosing colors based on color science to match desired outcomes has the potential to make or break sales in the highly competitive real estate market.

Consider the following science-backed findings.

  1. Green creates a calming effect and can lower your heart rate. However, when splashed on walls, green can create a sickening look, which is why it shouldn’t be used in medical facilities. Instead, use biophilic design—incorporating greenery from plants—which will support a healthier living environment.
  2. Red creates excitement, aids metabolism and increases heart rate. That said, too much red can lead to anxiety. That’s why it’s often used selectively for retail signage and product labeling. Think about Target and Coca-Cola. Use red sparingly and as an accent.
  3. Blue signifies trust and stability. Men tend to like blue more than women. Note: Many financial institutions use it as their principal hue, likely because of the subconscious messages it sends.
  4. Black connotes luxury among some lifestyle brands. A black front door can signal opulence, and some studies have even suggested it can lead to a higher listing and purchase price. (Get inspiration for how to use black.)
  5. Soothing lighting in the hallway can put buyers at ease. Keep in mind that the type of lighting will change the effects of colors in the space. Warm tones, daylight bulbs or LED lights will have a massive impact on the coloring as well as the shading of your environment.

Visualize Other Colors

High-tech tools like virtual reality can take this further, enabling agents, brokers and developers to personalize properties to the tastes and imaginations of house hunters. Yet lower-tech versions also can help you visualize the possibilities. (Search online for “paint visualizer mobile apps” to find tools.)

Also, consider securing painting estimates from contractors or leaving paint chips out on display at listings so prospective buyers can visualize how they might personalize the walls to their own tastes.

Leveraging color can help drive sales in other ways. Incorporating a fun color quiz into your sales process, for example, can help your clients understand their reactions to certain colors. This also can help clients see the potential of a property beyond the existing colors or wallpaper.

Real estate professionals also can use color in their logo and marketing materials to build trust and excitement among clients and prospects. A signature color can help differentiate you among a sea of other brokers and agents. Ryan Serhant, a reality TV star and founder of his own brokerage, even went so far as to invest in a car in “Serhant blue.”

But try simple touches like colorful eyeglass frames, jewelry, hats, scarves, shoes or ties in your signature color, which can be less expensive and still memorable.

Color science is being applied to multi-family communities, student and senior housing, commercial spaces, schools, medical facilities and other structures. As researchers learn more about the human brain’s functions, professionals will be able to learn more about how color can impact our actions and reactions, including when it comes to real estate.

Shared from: https://www.nar.realtor/blogs/styled-staged-sold/how-to-leverage-color-science-in-real-estate
Uncategorized August 19, 2023

Understanding Title Insurance

Title companies are nothing new in the real estate industry. But do you understand their function and how vital they are to you?

Title insurance is the inverse of other insurance coverages. Instead of assuming risk, title insurance companies eliminate the risk with a one-time payment, assuring the homeowner maintains the title as owner of the property. Title companies defend homeowners against any lawsuits attacking the title or if there is a covered loss, they will compensate them for the amount of the policy.

Title insurance is essential to the real estate and lending industries. Without it, you couldn’t feel confident you truly own the homes—or borrow against their collateral.

Ensuring ownership

Title insurance is different than other types of insurance.

Most consumer insurance policies—think car or homeowners insurance—assume risk. A policy gives you money if an adverse event qualifies for reimbursement.

In contrast, title insurance eliminates risk. For a one-time fee, you get an assurance that title will not be taken away from you once you own the property. That’s because the title company will defend against any lawsuits attacking title, or if there is a covered loss (such as the title being vested in an owner different from the one stated on the policy), the title company will compensate you for the amount of the policy.

Title companies do this by searching property history to ensure there are no unpaid debts, liens, or heirs that could contest the buyer’s ownership. Companies also resolve any fraud or forgery found in the chain of title before the buyer purchases the property.

Discovering property history

How can title companies ensure no valid claims can be made against the buyer’s ownership?

To be licensed in Texas, title companies must own or lease a title plant: special software or a filing system to search geographically indexed title records. Escrow officers search the records using a property’s legal description and review a run sheet of property information. Officers also search for the buyer’s and seller’s names to ensure there are no tax or judgment liens filed.

In the rare event that a county does not have a local title agent with geographically indexed title records, title professionals have to go to the county courthouse and manually do a grantor-grantee search. That’s tracing the property history backward one sale at a time.

Most properties need some kind of correction, or curative work, to their title information. It may be something simple like correcting a prior instrument with an error in the legal description, ordering proof of a mortgage payoff, or ordering homeowners or property association information. If the problem is small, the title companies can handle it themselves with the seller’s permission.

The escrow officer’s work depends on the property. If a property has changed hands often and everything’s up to date, it could close in as little as three days.

Working on a property that’s been in the same family for generations is not as easy as you might think, though. Title agents need to trace the property back through probate and wills to determine heirship. That may take 30 to 45 days.

Officers must also do significant work when a deceased homeowner’s estate isn’t organized, such as if there is no will. They have to make sure there are no unknown heirs. Sometimes people sign affidavits and they forget to include someone, or they don’t think an estranged son is entitled to the property. They may search obituaries or just Google these people.

Complex issues, such as untangling IRS tax or judgment liens, bankruptcies, or imminent foreclosures, may require involving attorneys. Title companies can work to get lien releases against the property, but these do not release the debtor from any personal liability on the debt if a balance remains.

Why title matters

In theory, you can buy and sell a property without title insurance. If you pay cash and all of the paperwork is clean and in order, it can be done. But doing so comes with risks.

For the vast majority of transactions, title insurance builds the trust required to conduct business. Buyers want to know they truly own the property.

Homeowners take out second mortgages and borrow against their homes to pay for a child’s education, for example. Clean title records allow this to happen.

Title insurance is the product title companies offer, but title companies also offer other important services during the real estate transaction. They can collect the funds, liens, and bills, and then handle the final exchange between buyer and seller, and then  record the transaction and make sure everything’s in the deed and that ownership passes.

Title companies handle the actual closing and amend all of the records so everything’s up to date and accurate. If title companies disappeared tomorrow, the property records could be in disarray within five years. “We are constantly cleaning them up and correcting legal documents, sometimes requiring the prior owners’ signatures. And if you wait a few years, you may have to track down the executor of the owner’s estate.”

Home Improvement August 13, 2023

Drought Causing Foundation Problems and What to do About it

Shared from an inspectors point of view on water or lack there of in a foundation and it’s health.

Desiccation Cracks – my mud is cracking!

Texas is hot and dry and as we are moving into September, we are seeing more and more desiccation cracks, which means that the soil itself is starting to crack. This is something that happens during prolonged dry spells to certain types of soil. The soil type that is experiencing the biggest issues is soils that have a high content of clay minerals such as smectites. When smectites get wet, water is able to get in between the molecules causing the soil to expand by pushing the structural units apart. When these water molecules evaporate, it shrinks down again. These clay contents that have a high shrink-swell plasticity will result in large crack formation during dry spells and it is not uncommon to see shrinkage of ten percent or more.

Why should you care about this and what does it have to do with foundations? The soil that underlies most properties here in Austin are shrink-swell soils.  As the soil desiccates its capacity of bearing and stabilize the foundation decreases, which means that your foundation might get damaged. On top of this, most homeowner’s insurances do not cover damages that are caused by expansive soils. It is estimated that the expansive soils in the US alone generates a cost of damage of $2-3 billion every year. A cost that I know most of us would like to escape.

When there are significant and repeated moisture content changes, the foundation takes the most damage.  This means that by maintaining an even moisture level around your property, you can avoid these costly repairs. The moisture level needs to not only be evenly around the property but also during the different seasons. While a well-constructed drainage system can help you keep the moist level down during wet seasons, watering your yard can help it during the dry seasons. This can be done by using a sprinkling system or even a regular soaker hose within 10-12 inches of the foundation edge. Make sure to not add too much water and not too little. If you are seeing desiccation cracks on the south side of your home but not the north, the south side will need more water than the north to keep the moisture level balanced. As a result, the soil will not experience great changes, and if it does these changes will be somewhat even throughout the home and minimizing the stress it puts on your foundation.

Signs the Soil Around Your Foundation is Too Dry

How do you know if the soil around your foundation is too dry? If there has been a stretch of very hot and dry weather, and you have done no supplemental watering, there is a good chance the soil around your foundation is too dry. Visual indicators include large cracks in your yard, and, in extreme instances, soil visibly pulling away from your home’s foundation.

Signs the Soil Around Your Foundation is Too Dry

How do you know if the soil around your foundation is too dry? If there has been a stretch of very hot and dry weather, and you have done no supplemental watering, there is a good chance the soil around your foundation is too dry. Visual indicators include large cracks in your yard, and, in extreme instances, soil visibly pulling away from your home’s foundation

 

Newsletters August 7, 2023

August Real Estate News August 2023

Buying August 7, 2023

Important Tip when Applying for a Mortgage

Shared by a local lender who takes great care of their clients!!

Go to www.optoutprescreen.com before pulling your credit. The reason is so that you might be inundated with phone calls, texts, and emails from every mortgage company on the planet when pulling your credit.

If you forget to do this FIRST, it cannot be reversed. Under the Fair Credit Reporting Act, credit repositories (Transunion, Equifax, and Experian) are allowed to sell consumer names on credit lists used by credit card companies, insurance companies, mortgage companies, and debt collectors,

When you authorize the lender to pull credit if the consumer hasn’t “opted out”, their mortgage inquiry, along with their contact information, it will be instantly sold to other mortgage companies as “trigger leads”, and the tsunami of phone calls, emails, and text messages to the consumer begins.
Let’s face it, people don’t always know in advance when they will be in the market for a mortgage.

Thankfully, this was shared so that you can be proactive and educate our databases to do the following NOW so you will not have to worry about this when you apply for a mortgage.
IMPORTANT STEPS:
1) Go to www.optoutprescreen.com .
2) File electronically to opt out from receiving “firm offers” for 5 years.
3) It’s a good idea to follow up with the electronic opt-out with a permanent opt-out.

To do this, you should complete and print the Permanent Opt-Out Election Form which is on the website and mail it in. (Do this, and you will never have to think about it again.)
4) You will always be able to opt back in if you want to receive offers again.

** It’s important to note that it takes 5 days after the consumer has requested to opt out before the bureaus are notified of the request.

Market Info July 24, 2023

Mortgage Rates Dip Back Down

July 20, 2023

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) dropped from last week’s average of 6.96% to an average of 6.78% this week, according to the latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®) from Freddie Mac released Thursday.

This week’s numbers:

  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.78% as of July 6, 2023, up from last week when it averaged 6.96%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 5.54%.
  • 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.06%, down from last week when it averaged 6.3%. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.75%.

The takeaways:

“As inflation slows, mortgage rates decreased this week,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. “Still, the ongoing shortage of previously owned homes for sale has been a detriment to homebuyers looking to take advantage of declining rates. On the other hand, homebuilders have an edge in today’s market, and incoming data shows that homebuilder sentiment continues to rise.”

“The Freddie Mac fixed-rate for a 30-year mortgage remained elevated this week,” said realtor.com® Economic Data Analyst Hannah Jones. “After June’s relatively positive inflation data, the market’s attention has turned to the upcoming FOMC meeting. Though inflation has slowed, the level remains well above the 2% target, and investors expect the Fed to hike interest rates in pursuit of this target. While the Federal Funds rate does not directly impact mortgage rates, it installs a floor beneath the cost of borrowing, meaning mortgage rates are likely to remain elevated for the time being.

“Mortgage rates have hovered in the 6% – 7% range for the past 10 months,” added Jones. “Though home prices have softened slightly nationally, the still-high cost of borrowing means hopeful homebuyers have felt little relief. Many homeowners feel ‘locked-in’ by their current mortgage rate and are therefore choosing to hold off on listing their home for sale. As a result, after more than a year of new listings lagging behind the previous year’s pace, the number of homes for sale has tracked lower than last year’s levels for the past four weeks. In light of limited home inventory, buyers are turning to new construction, and builders are picking up the pace of construction to fill the gap.

“As markets prepare for next week’s FOMC meeting and the probable resulting interest rate hike, strong employment data and cooling inflation suggest that the economy’s progress toward stability is on the right track,” concluded Jones. “However, home shoppers are still feeling the pressure of recently-climbing mortgage rates as well as limited affordable inventory. Sellers remain hesitant to engage with today’s market, creating competition for the relatively few homes on the market in many areas. The current market dynamics are likely to persist until affordability and inventory gains are made. Despite slowing price growth nationally, some low-priced markets continue to see high levels of price growth and a quick market pace, exemplifying how much housing market dynamics vary by locale.”

Market Info July 24, 2023

Existing-Home Sales Fall 3.3% In June

In keeping with the challenges of low inventory and high home prices, existing-home sales fell 3.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.16 million in June, according to the National Association of REALTORS®’ (NAR) most recent existing-home sales report.

NAR’s latest data on existing homes found that year-over-year, sales fell 18.9% (down from 5.13 million in June 2022). In addition, total housing inventory was 1.08 million units, identical to May, but down 13.6% from one year ago (1.25 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 3.1-month supply at the current sales pace, up from three months in May and 2.9 months in June 2022.

Key data points:

  • Total housing inventory was 1.08 million units, identical to May, but down 13.6% from one year ago (1.25 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 3.1-month supply at the current sales pace, up from three months in May and 2.9 months in June 2022.
  • The median existing-home price for all housing types was $410,200, the second-highest price of all time and down 0.9% from the record-high of $413,800 in June 2022. The monthly median price surpassed $400,000 for the third time, joining June 2022 and May 2022 ($408,600).
  • Properties typically remained on the market for 18 days, identical to May, but up from 14 days in June 2022. Seventy-six percent of homes sold were on the market for less than a month.
  • First-time buyers were responsible for 27% of sales, down from 28% in May and 30% in June 2022. NAR’s 2022 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers found that the annual share of first-time buyers was 26%, the lowest since NAR began tracking the data.
  • All-cash sales accounted for 26% of transactions in June, up from 25% in both May 2023 and June 2022.
  • Individual investors or second-home buyers, who make up many cash sales, purchased 18% of homes in June, up from 15% in May and 16% the previous year.
  • Distressed sales—foreclosures and short sales—represented 2% of sales in June, virtually unchanged from last month and the prior year.

Single-family and condo/co-op sales:

  • Single-family home sales decreased to 3.72 million, down 3.4% from 3.85 million in May and 18.8% from the previous year. The median price was $416,000, down 1.2% from last year.
  • Existing condominium and co-op sales were at 440,000 units, down 2.2% from May and 20% from one year ago. The median price was $361,600, up 1.9% from the previous year ($354,800).

Regional breakdown:

  • Sales in the Northeast grew 2% to an annual rate of 510,000, down 21.5% from June 2022. The median price was $475,300, up 4.9% from the prior year.
  • In the Midwest, sales were unchanged at an annual rate of 990,000, down 19.5% from one year ago. The median price was $311,800, up 2.1% from last year.
  • Sales in the South fell 5.4% to an annual rate of 1.91 million, down 16.2% from the previous year. The median price was $366,600, down 1.2% from last year.
  • In the West, sales declined 5.1% to an annual rate of 750,000, down 22.7% from one year ago. The median price was $606,500, down 3.4% from last year.

The takeaways:

“The first half of the year was a downer for sure with sales lower by 23%. Fewer Americans were on the move despite the usual life-changing circumstances. The pent-up demand will surely be realized soon, especially if mortgage rates and inventory move favorably,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.

“Home sales fell, but home prices have held firm in most parts of the country,” added Yun. “The national median home price in June was slightly less than the record high of nearly $414,000 in June of last year. Limited supply is still leading to multiple-offer situations, with one-third of homes getting sold above the list price in the latest month.”

“Sales of existing homes dipped in June, slipping 3.3% to a pace of 4.16 million, the slowest since January,” said realtor.com® Chief Economist Danielle Hale. “As current homeowners continue to sit on the sidelines, buyers have limited new options, which is putting a damper on sales. In fact, the number of newly listed homes year-to-date trails recent years, including 2020, when pandemic-related disruptions largely delayed the home-buying season. The pace of home sales continues to exceed the four million sales low reached in January, and while it still lags year ago sales by a considerable amount, 18.9%, the gap will close in the months ahead.

“Mortgage rates in May climbed sharply after mid-month inflation data. Buyers who hustled to lock in rates are likely happy with their decision, as mortgage rates have remained relatively elevated since then. With rates still high, buyers remain cost-conscious, but a competitive market makes this challenging. The median sale price continued to decline, but the size of the drop, 0.9% from the June 2022 peak, was more modest than we’ve seen in the past three months. In fact, the U.S. median existing-home sales price of $410,200 was the second-highest price ever recorded, and only the third time in the data’s history above $400,000. Our revised 2023 outlook expects that even though conditions are favorable, home sellers will remain scarce for the rest of the year, which will keep existing-home sales roughly at their current pace.

“May’s first-ever decline in asking rents will mean some would-be first-time homebuyers continue to rent longer, and the monthly cost advantage tips further toward renting. Already, NAR found that the share of first-time home buyers dipped to just 27% in June, down from 28% in May and 30% one year ago. With individual investors or second-home buyers stepping up their pace (to 18% in June, from 15% in May), a weaker trend for rents is likely to continue,” concluded Hale.